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Not WW3, but Cold War 2.
Already there
No, we are not headed for WW3.
The military-industrial complex must be fed, our weapons sold or used. But, a large magnitude hot war has far more social and economic risk and not enough return on investment relative the alternative of multiple proxy wars. We’ve currently proxy wars in Israel and Ukraine. Economic growth is optimized by beginning a proxy war with China.
If Trump was smart then he might internally convince others in his administration to diplomatically and operationally over-commit. Then we could have WW3. But, he’s a puppet ruling by fear. We’ve been fighting our proxy wars since Reagan. Trump isn’t capable of overcoming capitalism’s mandate for optimized growth.
But where? Taiwan seems the obvious candidate. Not sure if that would really lead to (quaterly) economic growth though.
Regarding war and money, the question often isn’t who’s positioned to gain the most, instead who’s positioned to lose the least. We often don’t measure self against history and reason, instead relative our competitors.
The US has already manufactured consent to have a proxy war with China. I assume we’ve not done it in Taiwan because we’d lose more on trade than we’d gain consuming weapons, perhaps also because China could absorb the loss of Taiwan as a trade partner better than the US.
To be determined. We’re ready and waiting for an opportunity to present itself.
Myanmar borders China in to its north and India to its west and is currently in a civil war. This would be the perfect battlespace for a proxy war between India, US vs China.
While I know a lot less about global politics than other subjects, involving India seems like a really bad idea. Otherwise it makes sense.
Perhaps. Depends, ultimately, on if the US Empire goes down with a bang, or a whimper. Its grip on the world is spilling through its fingers like sand, so either it will watch it fall out helplessly, or will attempt to strike and retake what it’s losing.
“and now class I would like to draw your attention to a footnote that existed between the ancient empires of Britain and the Glorious Peoples Empire of China… for a time there was a thing called ‘America’…”
I don’t think the PRC will be taking on the mantle of “Empire.” Hegemon, sure, but their strategy thus far has been starkly different from the British and US Empires with respect to the Global South. The current US Empire dominates the Global South largely through massive Financial Capital and control of the World Reserve Currency, and is largely de-industrialized, while the PRC focuses more on selling to other countries as a heavily industrialized country. For example, in the US, “Made in USA” is a rarity, and usually just assembled in the USA, while in China “Made in China” goods are by far the norm.
UK went through industrialization leading to its empire, and the US was the industrial power during its ascent. Same thing with Japan before WWII.
Many imoeralistic powers seem to go through big industrial growth before expansion.
Sure, but that evidently doesn’t seem to be the course the PRC is taking. Rather, as Marxist-Leninists, they appear to be more interested in building up the Global South through favorable trade deals as an investment in future customers for their exports. This is fundamentally a different strategy from focusing on exporting financial and industrial Capital to the Global South. Further, China is too populous to offload their productive forces to the Global South, even if we doubt them as dedicated Communists it doesn’t appear to be an economically viable strategy to adopt an Imperialist stance to begin with.
They’re not Marxist-Leninists at all though… They’re just a highly regulated form of capitalism.
The government doesn’t own Tencent, they just keep a strong grip on them. They have their own billionaires, the factories have owners, companies bid to fulfill government contracts, you apply for a job and get paid what they offer. It’s just capitalism
Their government does a lot more than in the US and has a lot more influence, and they do influence the market more… But that’s just regulation and public services
They basically do what we did to tik tok. The US government can revoke a corporate charter for any or no reason, China just actually uses this authority actively
They claim to be Marxist-Leninists, explain their actions, and have an economy driven by Marxist-Leninist analysis. They have Markets, yes, but markets aren’t the same thing as Capitalism itself. Rather, they have a Socialist Market Economy, which is driven by public ownership and planning of heavy industry, energy, finance, infrastructure in general, etc and have partial private ownership over light industry.
By what reasons do you say they aren’t what they say they are? What do you think their economy would look like if they were “true Marxist-Leninists” in your eyes? When does an economy become “Capitalist” and when does it become “Socialist” in your eyes?
Belt and roads is China’s attempt to do exactly what we’ve been doing with the global south, invest for influence and put them on a debt treadmill. Build infrastructure, pressure them to take on more debt with new projects, say it’s time for austerity, open up more foreign investments, use pressure to buy up raw resources, etc
It’s worth mentioning Coca-Cola… You can get American products everywhere, opening them up as a new market isn’t a different strategy, it’s part of the process
Is there actual evidence of these debt traps, or is that just an assumed motivation? Again, China’s financial Capital is largely held by the State, not private entities. Big difference in motivation compared to, say, US finance Capital, which is largely Private. Furthermore, Coke largely produces in the Global South, China produces in its own country.
Yes, the World Bank and the IMF. I’ve even seen it personally, which is what led me to dig down the rabbit hole - I got interviewed by a world Bank employee to explain why I was installing a system for an airport, and they kept trying to guide me to explain why it was helpful…I couldn’t, because it was only useful if the Internet is down, and if that happens it’s probably not useful because the system had to be taken down if there’s bad weather, and the airport regularly flooded during storms anyways
They were constant protests and news coverage of projects being pushed on them, and it was an open secret for the airport workers. It was for things they didn’t need or want, even though they had plenty of infrastructure in disrepair already
Argentina is the classic example, they resisted and had their currency destroyed, which makes international trade hard. Other countries go so deep in debt they have IMF officials installed in their government to implement austerity measures, some even are forced to hand over their currency printing powers
Sometimes countries get into our good graces, like Peru, and they are let off the treadmill in exchange for beneficial trade deals. That’s after having their resource rights sold off and letting in foreign investments to extract wealth moving forward, but mostly they’re kept in perpetual debt as leverage
It’s a wild and very deep rabbit hole. The information isn’t hidden, it’s just spun in a positive light
You’re describing Imperialism as outlined by Lenin in Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism and its contemporary form by Hudson in Super Imperialism, but these are overwhelmingly done by Western countries, especially the United States. Do you have specific evidence of this being a primary factor for China specifically? Again, the US relies on this as its Capital is overwhelmingly financial, whereas China’s is Industrial.
I mean… They’re not exactly hiding it. The expressed purpose of belts and roads is to invest in their infrastructure and partner with them to build industrial capacity. Conveyer belts and roads. They openly state they’re doing it to build up trading partners and global influence
It’s literally the same thing… Will they be better partners? Hopefully, it’s not exactly a high bar
It’s not at all the same thing, and I suggest you read the linked texts. Building infrastructure and trading deals is not the same as Imperialism, where brutal loans entrap countries and industrial capital is exported to produce with lower wages for super profits domestically. I already explained that China is heavily industrialized and seeks to sell what it produces.
Yes, the World Bank and the IMF are major actors in post-WWII neocolonialism.
Guess which is the sole country with veto power in both the World Bank and the IMF?
This is bullshit projection.
I feel like we’re already in WW3 but everyone has to pretend we’re not to avoid escalating it to nuclear.
This might be his exit strategy. This is how he can get a third term.
Probably. Too many hot spots in the world right now where a minor mistake can result in a chain reaction.
In the long term, yes. The bourgeoisie are rich and comfortable with no desire for a war that could jeopardize their position. However, they have lots of financial incentives for military spending because it’s rife with corruption. As such, they do a lot of saber-rattling to make WWIII seem like a genuine possibility, while also fighting in proxy wars around the globe.
But the problem is, they’re playing with forces beyond their control. If you have a generation raised on constant propaganda to genuinely hate other countries, then all it takes is a couple people in the wrong positions at the wrong time who aren’t in on the game. Right now, the rabid dog is on the leash of the bourgeoisie, but the gamble they’ve been making is that they can keep pumping steroids into it forever and never lose control.
Furthermore, wasting all this money on war and militarism has allowed China to emerge as a credible threat to their global hegemony. China is sitting back and focusing on domestic economic development, and they are winning the peace while the US burns itself out. What happens when the only area in which the US has an advantage is the military? Are people really going to accept becoming #2, or are they going to force a confrontation? Given that we’re talking about Americans, who are 1) Riled up on propaganda, 2) Preoccupied with being “#1,” and 3) Unused to experiencing the effects of fucking around firsthand, it seems almost inevitable. Ofc, it’s true that we somehow maintained a Cold War with the USSR for decades, but it’s different today because conditions are declining and the far-right is growing stronger every day.
I mean, unless there is no major global war from now until the heat death of the universe or some other extinction level event, aren’t we just perpetually going towards WW3?
Most arguments against a potential WW3 happening seemed to base the assumption that we were dealing with mentally competent world leaders, who were ultimately worried more about their money and comfortable life, so would not let it happen. Trump and Elon have grown up in such wealth, they are completely disconnected from reality and I believe are insane enough to think they are untouchable by anyone and anything, even Putin knows he is not invincible. This swing to the right in Western countries seems to be filled with similar people, with the common belief that they will never truly have to deal with the consequences of their actions. People with this level of insanity, do not care if the poors get ground up in their wars and thus, i think it is now just a matter of time.
when the rich wage war it’s the poor who die
I think sort of, although it won’t be as cut-and-dry and the first two. I think it’ll be somewhere between a traditional ‘hot’ war and a cold war, where the larger players (ie: China, the US, Russia, the EU) will engage in propaganda wars, attempts to destabilize each other, cyber attacks, trade wars etc. while in areas outside of those groups (eg: Ukraine currently) there will be physical wars fought by proxy between the bigger groups.
I think we’re seeing the start of it now, and IMO the US is probably doing the least well so far of the major groups. Russia is doing the destabilization thing, which is working quite well in Europe and spectacularly well in the US, China seems to be leading in trade and tech (both cyber attacking and just undermining the US tech sector with things like DeepSeek) and I think Europe’s strategy seems to be to just bunker down and see what happens.
I think the main advantage the US traditionally has always had is its military - it’s geared up very well for a big physical war, but I don’t think this is that kind of conflict. And with the Trump administration’s obsession with tariffs and the general disregard for education and soft power, I think the country is really heading in the wrong direction for what may be coming.
As the Axis, yes
We’ve been in it for decades it’s just more covert and low intensity. The war never stops until we overthrow capitalism I’m afraid
Depending on how you define it, it may have already happened. WW1 was mostly just Europe.
https://lemmy.world/post/24430665
The class war never stopped.
Well, I’m not going to jinx it, am I?
On average it takes ~21 years between world wars, so it’s about the time since we’re 60 years late on schedule
Maximum profit is extracted being in a perpetual state of “will they/won’t they WWIII” which is why we’ll be right here in this mood for a long time…
I think we’re going through Cold War 2 before World War 3. China and Russia have been testing krill fishing limits recently while American private equity has entered the field, and the TikTok showdown is testing Internet authority.
I’m going to look at it more in terms of how long a European peace lasted.
The Napoleonic wars ended with the Concert of Europe, a peace that was able to last until World War I and depended on a balance of power that lasted for almost a century.
An equivalent system was set up after World War II with a peace anchored by the Allied Powers, decolonization, and the US-Soviet rivalry. That system has lasted for about 80 years and is showing significant strain.
I don’t know how long this system will last, but it doesn’t seem like it will last for much longer. Trump’s election seems to be hastening that end.
What? No it hasn’t. The cold war ended by 1992 at the latest. At that point the US achieved total, unipolar hegemony over the world and began exercising it. Clinton’s “interventions” in Kosovo, Africa, etc. The Bush era Neo-Cons, those were all results of a new era of unchallenged American power and hegemony. That marked a new era.
Right now the world, led by China and Russia as well as other members of BRICS are trying to buck that total dominance and hegemony of the US and set up a multi-polar world but the US is not letting go, it is not ceding power, it has replaced international law as set out in agreement with the victorious powers of WW2 with “rules based order” which means its way or the high-way, the rule of their might and their wants and nothing else matters. Trump is flexing that built up power, the fact they control SWIFT, the fact the dollar is world reserve currency, their incredible ability to do sanctions to anyone anywhere and put a big hurt on them for defying US interests and wants. He’s unleashing the full might, threatening sanctions, tariffs, straight up invasion to take Greenland or the Panama Canal, etc. All to do what? To maintain US primacy, to prevent the emergence of a multi-polar world where the US doesn’t dominate everyone else and set the terms and rules for the entire world.
So there are movements to try and strive towards a Westphalian (multi-polar) order led by China, Russia, and followed in those steps by other BRICS nations but they are cautious, they don’t want to anger the US and even China still backs down if the threats of sanctions gets too big. So right now we’re in a struggle to determine what kind of world we have either a continuation, a hardening of US empire and unipolar hegemony, unchallenged dominance of the world and its peoples to their dictates and benefits or else a multi-polar world structured around Westphalian principles of sovereignty of individual nations and cooperation and peace born out of multiple strong powers checking each other’s ambitions against other weaker nations.
The US ended an era of struggle and some independence for nations on its own after it won the cold war, it chose to build up its power, to break international law (Yugoslavia, Iraq, war on terror, sanctions regimes galore, etc), to replace it with “rules based order” which no one can solidly define the rules of because they’re ever shifted based on the wants and needs of the US.
It has still been a relatively peaceful time in human history post fall of the Soviet Union even when you include Iraqi and Afghani deaths as a proportion to the world’s population. Wars still happened in that relative time of peace, but those conflicts were relatively contained to not create a new great power war.
Great powers haven’t entered in open conflict on the scale of World War II, which was chosen as a bench mark.
It has if you think only conflicts in western land matter. What’s more, the US might launder its military operations within proxy organizations and banking institutions but it absolutely has wars going on even outside Iraq and Afghanistan. Whistleblowers have confirmed the CIA as being behind every major terrorist attack in Chechnya and Xinjiang, and financing paramilitaries all over the world, as well as dealing with narcos and creating huge waves of drug violence in México, Ecuador and Colombia just to name a few.
Millions are dead as a direct result of US intervention in Iraq alone.
Still less than the dead of World War II
Sure, but this isn’t an "inordinately peaceful "time just because it isn’t as deadly as the single biggest war in all of history.
I didn’t just provide one example, though. There are cycles of war and peace in Europe that got mapped out to the globe as European nations became the dominant powers. There are eras of wars where various great and lesser powers participate in more destructive wars because the international order has broken down and isn’t there to restrain belligerents. There are also times when costly wars don’t end with a lasting “peace”, but an armistice before fighting resumes.
We seem to be at a point where the post World War II international order is breaking down. When that happens historically, there is usually a big war and destruction on the order of magnitude of World Wars I and II.
I think some would argue that class warfare is a cold war already happening.
Ww3 is too high risk due to nukes, but it will get to that point and hopefully not over it
You have to define ‘we’ and you also have to define ‘WW3’.
Possible scenarios:
USA decides to get actively involved in Ukraine’s conflict. Yes, that could spell WW3. Low probability, though, since Trump does not care about Ukraine.
Russia decides to attack Western Europe. Probably only a regional conflict, since Trump would probably pull out of NATO. This is the scenario a lot of European nations are gaming today.
China attacks Taiwan and/or North Korea attacks South Korea. Probably a regional conflict, but with a high probability of escalation. Trump would drop both South Korea and Taiwan at the drop of a hat.
Iran attacks Israel, probably through proxy. Regional conflict. This is already going on, so low risk of escalation.
Mmm if Iran and Israel really start to go at it, I could absolutely imagine Trump finding a way to use nukes on Iran. He wants to use the nukes.
Not saying any of these would cause WW3, but remeber that, depending on who you ask, WW2 started:
there is no single point of start for a war, just many actions of variable intensity that escalate
It’s possible none of those would technically be WW3 by itself, perhaps the start of heavier US commitment in the first of those conflicts might be perceived as the opportunity for the others to get started. Maybe even some less obvious conflicts are merely waiting for NATO to be preoccupied (e.g. random colonies being invaded or declaring independence). The US will be forced into taking at least one L, or switching back to a war economy.
not plausible, neither of them are that stupid
Afghanistan vs. Pakistan, or Iran, is infinitely more likely. Pashtun supremacists (yea the Taliban) are actually stupid af
You remember how the Tamil Tigers invaded Sri Lanka? Now imagine if they were doing that but to China. That’s basically what the Taliban is doing right now lol
(just to be clear, Tamils were actually fighting oppression, Pashtuns are not)
America will take Greenland, and then Canada is next being surrounded on three sides.
Can a NATO country invoke the defence pact if it’s attacked by another NATO country?
NATO vs America wasn’t on my bingo card.
During the first cold war conflicts happened outside of the super-powers:
This time conflicts will happen in Siberia, Africa and Middle east. I also think Indonesia and Pakistan will be center of major conflicts between China, India and the USA. These conflicts will costs some millions of lives, but not touch the empires heartlands, so it will not get nuclear again imo.
Demographics will play a major role in this: Younger median age countries will have more war and conflict, while the older countries can maintain some semblance of stability. South Sudan is a great example of this mechanism: This is why I also think this war will last 30 years, like the 30 years war in Germany 1618 that killed 50%+ of its populaiton.
We have been in WW3 since Russia started it’s fully scale invasion if Ukraine in 2022. The major conflicts if it just haven’t become kinetic yet. China has conducted cyber attacks in the United States, Russia has been attacking undersea fiber. China is building ships that on gave one ouroose to invaide Taiwan. In 100 years thus will be seen as the early days if the war.
There are certainly some folks, who are leaders of various countries, who seem to very much want it. Heck you would think china would not given their economic position but they still do the push push on the south of china sea, taiwan, india, tibet… Add in putin, kim and trump and a match and we got it.
This war is about control, not by weapons but by controlling minds. It’s fairly obvious. Social media forms opinions. It’s also full of bubbles where people get reinforcement for their existing beliefs. What people believe doesn’t matter so much, just that their beliefs are shaped by social media.
Social media platforms are controlled by big tech algorithms, so they in turn control what information should surface. On computers and phones, you have survellience apps running (called AI) that collects information about each users private life. This is all combined with other info to build an accurate profile of everyone having a device using social media or the web.
The end goal is to watch everyone, keep them in line. In the west I think it’s mostly used to sell ads, but in other countries like China and Russia, I think it’s more sinister.
Either way, the end goal is control of people. Before, it was control of land and borders.
The Twitter Files showed us that this is not true. Though corporate social media didn’t invent propaganda. Previously.
Which social media algorithm caused you to form this opinion?
Yes, surely with programs like PRISM and the NSA, and corporations collecting information about literally every aspect of our lives with every device we purchase…they are just trying to sell us ads.
Our ruling power structure is paranoid, our government is rogue and largely does not serve US citizens (only the ruling elite), they maintain control by invoking fear, division, outrage, and stress in the population and they count on our learned helplessness and slave mentality. They want us to be depressed, they want us to be chronically ill and tired, they want us to be poor and struggling, and most importantly they want us to think we’re the “good guys” fighting the “bad guys”.
I sure hope so